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Fooled By Randomness - PDF
Fooled By Randomness - PDF
نویسندگان: Nassim Nicholas Taleb خلاصه: This is my book summary of Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. My notes are informal and often contain quotes from the book as well as my own thoughts. This summary also includes key lessons and important passages from the book. According to Taleb, the book's most popular chapter was Chapter 11, the one in which he compressed all the literature on the topic of miscalculating probability. Important point: “it's more random than we think, not it is all random.” Chance favors preparedness, but it is not caused by preparedness (same for hard work, skills, etc.) “This business of journalism is just about entertainment, particularly when it comes to radio and television.” As much as we want to “keep it simple, stupid” … It is precisely the simplification of issues that are actually very complex, which can be dangerous. “Things that happen with little help from luck are more resistant to randomness.” “Mild success can be explainable by skills and labor. Wild success is attributable to variance.” One common theory for why people pursue leadership is because of “social emotions” which cause others to be influenced by a person due to small, almost imperceptible physical signals like charisma, gestures, and gait. This has also been shown via evolutionary psychology: when you perform well in life, you get all “puffed up” in the way you carry yourself, the bounce in your step, etc. From an evolution standpoint this is great because it becomes easier to spot the most successful / desirable mate. The concept of alternative histories is particularly interesting. If you were to relive a set of events 1000 times, what would the range of outcomes be? If there is very little variance in your alternative histories (i.e. You chose to become a dentist and you will probably make more or less the same amount of money and live a similar lifestyle all 1000 times), then you are in a relatively non- random situation. Meanwhile, if there is a very wide range of normal results when considering 1,000 variations (entrepreneurs, traders, etc.), then it is a very random situation. The quality of a choice cannot be judged just by the result. (I first learned this in baseball. Just because a pitch you call or play you call doesn't work out doesn't make it a poor choice. It could have been the right call, but bad luck. Or vice versa.) “Certainty is something that is likely to take place across the highest number of different alternative histories. Uncertainty concerns events that should take place in the lowest number of them.” You should think carefully about getting more insurance / shielding yourself from events that — although unlikely — could be catastrophic. You essentially want to insulate yourself from terrible random accidents. We have a tendency to see risks against specific things as more likely than general risks (dying in a terrorist attack while traveling vs. dying on your next trip, even though the second includes the first). We seem to overvalue the things that trigger an emotional response and undervalue the things that aren't as emotional. We are so mentally wired to overvalue the sensational stories that you can “realize informational gains by dispensing with the news.” Fascinating famous Swiss study of the amnesia patient who couldn't remember doctor's name but did remember him pricking her hand with a pin. “Every man believes that he is quite different.” It's better to value old, distilled thoughts than “new thinking” because for an idea to last so long it must be good. That is, old ideas have had to stand the test of time. New ideas have not. Some new ideas will end up lasting, but most will not. The ratio of undistilled information to distilled is rising. Let's call information that has never had to prove its truth more than once or twice, undistilled. And information that has been filtered through many years, counter arguments, and situations is distilled. You want more distilled information (concepts that stand the test of time and rigorous analysis) and less undistilled information (the news, reactionary opinions, and “cutting edge” research). There is nothing wrong with losing. The problem is losing more than you plan to lose. You need clear rules that limit your downside. (“If any investment loses one million dollars then our firm sells immediately.”) Much of what is randomness is timing. The best strategy for a given time period is often not the best strategy overall. In any given cycle, certain places will be dangerous, certain trading strategies will be fruitful, etc. If you find yourself doing something extraordinarily well in a random situation, then keep doing what's working but limit your downside. There is nothing wrong with benefitting from randomness so long as you protect yourself from negative random events. Randomness means there are some strategies that work well for any given cycle (an extreme fad diet), but these cycles are often short to medium term successes. More importantly, the strategies that work for a given cycle in the short term may not be the best for long run. They are sub optimal strategies winning over a randomly beneficial short term cycle. The same can said for setting huge goals, following a fad diet, chasing an extreme training protocol, and so on. Unsustainable and suboptimal for the long term. In this way, evolutionary traits that are undesirable can survive for a period of time in any given population. That is, suboptimal strategies and traits can seem desirable in the short run even though they will be resoundingly defeated in the long run. Important point: you can never affirm a statement, merely confirm its rejection. There is a big difference between “this has never happened” and “this will ever happen.” You can say the first, but never truly confirm the second. It just takes one counter example to prove all previous observations wrong. We never know things for sure, only with varying degrees of certainty. There are only two types of ideas. Those that have been proven wrong and those which have yet to be proved wrong. (Feynman said something similar.) Strive to become a man of leisure who can afford to sit with ideas, think properly about them, and gradually provide something of value. Science is speculation. This is important to remember. Scientists are simply creating well-formed and well-educated conjectures about the world. But they are still conjectures that can be proved incorrect by one random event. It's a difficult standard to demand that you can actually implement ideas and not merely share them (there have been many brilliant philosophers and scientists who have had great ideas they didn't personally use), but is an idea really that great if you can stick to it? Obviously, everyone has different skills and circumstances, so maybe someone can use your idea even if you can't. But generally speaking, I think you should be able to live out the ideas you share. Pascal: “the optimal strategy for humans is to believe in the existence of God. For, if God exists, then the believer will be rewarded. If God does not exist, the believer will have nothing to lose.” My first thought: “yes, but what if you believe in the ‘wrong' God?” Should you play a numbers game and believe in the God most people believe in? Or, can we safely assume that of the infinite number of possible Gods humans could have designed it is unlikely that any of the ones we worship are actually the God? So, just believe that a higher power exists? Whew. Tough call here. Social treadmill effect: you get rich, move to a better neighborhood, surround yourself with more successful people, and feel poor again. “Remember that nobody accepts randomness in his own success, only his failure.” Skewness and expectations: you can't just look at the odds of something happening, but also the payoff you receive if it works (and the cost of it failing). A bet on something very unlikely can be smart if the payoff is large and you have rules to limit the many small losses that are likely. Minor stalemates in life can often be solved by choosing randomly. In many cases it doesn't really matter so long as you choose something and move forward. We follow rules not because they are the best options, but because they make things fast and easy. Humans are inherently flawed. The cognitive biases that we have are simply a result of how our brains work. Sometimes these biases help us rather than hurt us. But they are always a result of how we are built. That makes them particularly difficult to avoid. We seem to focus too much on “local” changes, not global ones. That is, we care too much about the latest change rather than the overall trend. “Wealth does not make people happy, but positive increases in wealth may.” We do not think, but use heuristics to make decisions. Emotions are “lubricants of reason.” We actually need to feel things to make decisions. Emotions give us energy and they are actually critical to life in the day-to-day world. In other words, the goal here is not to become a robot who can analyze everything with perfect logic. Even if you know about randomness and cognitive biases, you are still just as likely to fall victim to them. How to overcome these biases? We need tricks. We are just animals and we need to re-structure our environment to control our emotions in a smart way. “Most of us know pretty much how we should behave. It is the execution that is the problem, not the absence of knowledge.” “I try to remind my group each week that we are all idiots and know nothing, but we have the good fortune of knowing it.” Do not blame others for your failures. Even if they are at fault. The only aspect of your life that fortune does not have control over is your behavior. Repetitiveness is key for determining if you are seeing skill or randomness at play. Can't repeat it? Not skillful. “We favor the visible, the embedded, the personal, the narrated, and the tangible. We scorn the abstract. Everything good — aesthetics, ethics — and wrong — fooled by randomness — with us seems to flow from it.”
Secrets of the Russian Chess Masters: Beyond the Basics - PDF
Secrets of the Russian Chess Masters: Beyond the Basics - PDF
نویسندگان: Albett خلاصه: .
Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations - Original PDF
Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations - Original PDF
نویسندگان: Philip J. Flores خلاصه: ABSTRACT Be more effective in group therapy with addicted clients Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations: An Integration of Twelve-Step and Psychodynamic Theory, Third Edition is the newly revised edition of the classic text, that provides you with proven strategies for defeating alcohol and drug addiction through group psychotherapy. Philip J. Flores, a highly regarded expert in the treatment of alcoholism and in group psychotherapy brings together practical applications of 12-step programs and psychodynamic groups. This updated book explores the latest in constructive benefits of group therapy to chemically dependent individuals, providing opportunities to share and identify with others who are going through similar problems, to understand their own attitudes about addiction by confronting similar attitudes in others, and to learn to communicate their needs and feelings more directly. Topics in Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations: An Integration of Twelve-Step and Psychodynamic Theory, Third Edition include: alcoholism, addiction, and psychodynamic theories of addiction alcoholics anonymous and group psychotherapy use of confrontational techniques in the group inpatient group psychotherapy characteristics of the leader transference in the group resistance in groups preparing the chemically dependent person for group the curative process in group therapy integrating a modern analytic approach a discussion of object relations theory group psychotherapy, AA, and twelve-step programs diagnosis and addiction treatment treatment issues at early, middle, and late stages of treatment a discussion of guidelines and priorities for group leaders countertransference special considerations of resistance to addiction termination of treatment Professionals working in group therapy and addictions will find Group Psychotherapy with Addicted Populations: An Integration of Twelve-Step and Psychodynamic Theory, Third Edition an invaluable resource emphasizing the positive and constructive opportunities group psychotherapy brings to the chemically dependent individual.
It Runs In My Family - Original PDF
It Runs In My Family - Original PDF
نویسندگان: Joan C. Barth خلاصه: ABSTRACT This volume offers therapists effective, practical strategies for helping patients overcome the psychological impact of a history of serious illness in the family. Using illustrative case material, the author discusses the feelings of powerlessness that family illness can produce in an individual, and describes techniques for fostering a healthier, more empowered attitude. She shows how various assessment exercises and validation techniques can help the person distinguish between reality and the myths that evolved as a result of the family illness.
Understanding Autistic Relationships Across the Lifespan: Family, Friends, Lovers and Others - Original PDF
Understanding Autistic Relationships Across the Lifespan: Family, Friends, Lovers and Others - Original PDF
نویسندگان: Felicity Sedgewick, Sarah Douglas خلاصه: Autism, and autistic people, have been around as long as humans have. It is likely there were ancient humans with behaviours, cognitive patterns, and sensory sen- sitivities that would meet clinical diagnostic criteria (though that would be taking the game of historical diagnoses too far!). Autism, and other neurodevelopmen- tal conditions, are part of the natural range of human biodiversity. This belief is known as the neurodiversity paradigm, and it is the framework within which we are writing this book. We take the approach that autistic people (see the language note that follows) are valid in their way of being in, experiencing, and relating to the world, and hope to help them and others understand some of these differences, rather than arguing that they are somehow ‘wrong’ or need changing to be more like non-autistic people. This book is not about the definitions or evolution of neurodiversity, but if you would like some further reading on the topic, we would recommend looking at the book list we provide at the back! Throughout the book, we will be using the terms ‘autistic people’ and ‘non- autistic people’. This is known as identity-first language, and has been shown to be the preference of the majority of autistic people who take part in research on the topic (Kenny et al., 2016). This is different to the way a lot of clinicians, pro- fessionals, and researchers have historically talked about autistic people, as they have tended to use ‘people with autism’ or say someone ‘has autism’ – known as person-first language. Originally this was used because it was thought to empha- sise the person rather than the condition (Kenny et al., 2016), and in some cases it is the preferred language of people affected themselves (e.g. in eating disorder research, people are described as ‘having anorexia’). However, recent research in the autism field has shown that person-first language can increase the stigma against autistic people and has a dehumanising rather than humanising effect on how oth- ers think about them (Cage et al., 2022). Combined with the stated preference of many autistic people, therefore, we use identity-first language in our writing, INTRODUCTION DOI: 10.4324/9781003044536-1 2 Introduction whilst recognising that a proportion of autistic people prefer person-first language. We have no wish to intimidate a minority within a minority and are following majority preference for simplicity. Autism has both a very complex and a very simple history, depending on how you look at it. The simple version is that two psychologists in the 1940s, Kanner in the United States and Asperger in Austria, independently noticed that they were seeing children who had a shared set of characteristics – difficulties with social interaction (to varying degrees), a preference for routine and sameness, and chal- lenges with everyday living skills. Kanner called this ‘autism’ (a preference for one- self or being alone), and Asperger called it ‘Aspergers’ (a preference for showing off his ego). The two did not know about each other’s work, and autism became the dominant diagnosis as Kanner published in English, whereas Asperger published in German (which was not the way to make your work popular in 1940s Europe, for obvious reasons. It may also have had something to do with the fact that Asperger worked with the Nazis in highly problematic ways.). These diagnoses were unchanged over the next 40 years or so, until Lorna Wing and Judy Gould, in 1980s South London, did a large-scale population level study and realised that the children with these two diagnoses were actually part of the same spectrum, as were lots of children who had not been given a formal diagnosis of either. This is where the term ‘the autism spectrum’ comes from, and it was designed to create a broader and more inclusive sense of what being autis- tic meant and could look like. This pair of researchers also invented ‘the triad of impairments’, which, while not the terminology we use today, revolutionised how autistic people were recognised and opened up diagnosis and support for more of those who needed it. This triad was made up of difficulties with: • Imagination and executive function (things like guessing what other people were thinking, or being able to make a plan based on imagining what will happen next) • Social communication (things like being non-verbal, not following standard ‘rules’ of communication like turn taking in conversation, or struggling with eye contact) • Repetitive behaviours and restricted interests (things like repeated physical move- ments such as hand flapping, or having intense special interests) The rise in autism diagnoses following this expansion of the diagnostic criteria from the strict ones set out earlier, especially removing the need for co-occurring learning difficulties Kanner used, was significant. This coincided with the rolling out of the MMR vaccine; and a highly questionable researcher called Andrew Wakefield used this correlation to publish his idea that the vaccine was causing autism in children. What he did not publish was that he was paid by the rival vaccine company, had faked his results, and the blood samples he ‘used’ had been collected without parental consent from children at a birthday party. If you want a Introduction 3 fuller idea of just how wrong his work was, there are literally thousands of academic papers proving it – but these tend not to make such good Facebook memes, and hence we have the anti-vaxxer movement. Regardless of that particular issue, autism diagnoses have generally continued to rise. This is because we are getting better at spotting when someone is autistic, our diagnostic tools have improved, and we are starting to recognise that autism can present in an even wider variety of ways than we thought in the 1980s. It is also because there is now a recognition that we can – and should – diagnose adults who were missed in childhood, for a variety of reasons. For a long time, if someone was not diagnosed before the age of about 14, they were highly unlikely to get a diagnosis at all, because autism was thought to be a ‘childhood condition’. The fact that autistic children grow into autistic adults was somehow lost on a lot of the early researchers. In 2013, on the basis of evidence from autistic people and clinicians, sensory sensitivities (being under/hypo- or over/hyper-sensitive on one of the five senses) were added to the diagnostic criteria. Similarly, there is growing research into and awareness of how autism can look different in those who internalise a lot of their experiences and those who externalise them – which is more what is considered ‘classically autistic’. A lot of these more nuanced ideas about what autism is have come from the autism community itself, with autistic advocates and academics driving change and increasing societal awareness. There is still plenty of work to do, but the direction of movement seems positive. There is also, as we said, a much more complex story which can be told about autism and how autism research has developed over time. That isn’t the focus of this book (though it is the focus of Neurotribes, by Steve Silberman), and so we won’t try to tell it all here. What is relevant for the current book is the focus on social dif- ficulties, which have characterised autism research and stereotypes from the earliest days, back in the 1940s, and the assumptions this led people to make about autistic relationships until very recently. Most autism research, researchers, and parents of autistic people, for most of the last 80 years, have functioned based on the assumption that because autistic people had difficulties with making and maintaining friendships and relationships, had dif- ferent social interaction patterns, and did not show distress about these things in the ways they expected . . . that autistic people did not want friends or romantic relationships . . . that these were just things autistic people were hardwired not to value, or be interested in at all. Avoiding eye contact was seen as a sign of not wanting to engage with the person who was speaking; not inferring someone’s true intentions was seen as a failure to understand that other people have minds (yes, really); and not making friends at school was assumed to be because the child did not want friends and was happier on their own. A whole academic discipline of autism studies, with corresponding theories, was built upon the basis of these observations of social difficulty (along with the other two parts of the triad). A few examples of these theories follow
The Mercenary Life BY Bills - PDF
The Mercenary Life BY Bills - PDF
نویسندگان: Randall N. Bills خلاصه: A COST IS ALWAYS PAID… Nikolai Reed is a trader on a Lyran JumpShip plying the space lanes… Chloe Mason is a hot-shot tech with the Hsien Hotheads mercenaries… Leaving the Northwind Highlanders, MechWarrior Ryana Nikol fills a billet with the Eridani Light Horse… Disparate lives, but a unified dream that will bring them all together on a fateful course that will span decades, cover hundreds of light years, and involve love, friendship, and loss across a dozen worlds. Each will pay a price along the way, as a cost always comes due. The Mercenary Life anthology is a compilation of stories written by Randall N. Bills. Including tales from several different characters as they cross paths, and the dream to found a new mercenary command is born. Their unique lives showcase the struggles and trials of the men and women who take up the mercenary mantle from a variety of angles, all bound around that central vision. The first eight stories of this anthology were originally posted for free alongside the release of MechWarrior 5: Mercenaries, acting as the origin stories for the mercenary command within that computer game. This is the first time they have been compiled into a single volume to allow for a Print on Demand physical copy. Additionally, an all-new ninth story has been added—The Sun Will Rise—along with postscripts for every story that gives the reader insight into how stories are crafted within a shared universe between tabletop, computer games, and fiction that spans more than thirty years and tens of millions of words.
Medicinal Plants of the Asteraceae Family: Traditional Uses, Phytochemistry and Pharmacological Activities - Original PDF
Medicinal Plants of the Asteraceae Family: Traditional Uses, Phytochemistry and Pharmacological Activities - Original PDF
نویسندگان: Hari Prasad Devkota, Tariq Aftab خلاصه: .1 Introduction Medicinal plants have been an important source of the primary healthcare for prevention and treatment of diseases. Many of these plant species are also used as components of foods, nutraceuticals, functional foods, beverages, cosmetics, dyes, and many other purposes (Khanal et al. 2021). Medicinal plants are one of the important sources of modern drug discovery and development and more than 30% of the drugs currently marketed are derived from natural products (Newman and Cragg 2016; Atanasov et al. 2021).
BattleTech: No Greater Honor - PDF
BattleTech: No Greater Honor - PDF
نویسندگان: John Helfers, Philp A Lee خلاصه: TRADITIONS RUN DEEP… Most mercenary units fly flags on two flagpoles at their headquarters: one with their unit’s flag, and other bearing the flag of their current employer. However, the Third Regimental Combat Team—a.k.a. the Eridani Light Horse—leaves one flagpole bare, as a reminder of the death of the Star League, and the other pole flies the Light Horse’s unit and regimental flags at half-mast. What triumphs and tragedies shaped the Eridani Light Horse and its traditions? What drove them to become a force to be reckoned with, an elite mercenary unit with one of the longest histories and the deepest traditions in the Inner Sphere? Now, collected for the first time, nine of BattleTech’s finest authors bring the legacy of this storied unit to life like never before....
Rebirth of the Small Family Farm: A Handbook for Starting a Successful Organic Farm Based on the Community Supported Agriculture Concept - Original PDF
Rebirth of the Small Family Farm: A Handbook for Starting a Successful Organic Farm Based on the Community Supported Agriculture Concept - Original PDF
نویسندگان: Bonnie & Bob Gregson خلاصه: Introduction it is, poetically, a dark and stormy October night as this (true) tale begins to be set on paper. We have just shed our raingear and come inside after a session of slaughtering nearly 100 over-the-hill chickens. They are easy to snag from their henhouse perches after dark, and it was slightly comforting to do this periodic unpleasant-but-necessary chore in the rain. How bizarre this thought process — let alone the actual deeds — would have seemed to either of us eight years ago! We were then in our mid-40s, had just remarried and bought a small operating flower and nut farm on an island near Seattle, and were determined to drop out of corporate careers for a better lifestyle. So we did. And life did get better, much better.
BattleTech: The Hunt for Jardine - PDF
BattleTech: The Hunt for Jardine - PDF
نویسندگان: Herbert Beas خلاصه: BURIED IN THE ASHES OF WAR… Freelance explorer and treasure hunter Dr. Brooklyn Stevens has made her career finding lost artifacts from Inner Sphere history, but during the waning days of the FedCom Civil War, a job offered by the academic organization known as Interstellar Expeditions affords her the chance to pursue the find of a lifetime: a missing planet, one lost in the ravages of the brutal Succession Wars. But the world of Jardine did not only die in fire—it was erased from stellar maps entirely, and Brooke’s employer wants to know why. She must hunt down the only known link to this forgotten world: a dangerous predator native to Jardine, whose initial discoverer was silenced under mysterious circumstances. Someone wants this planet to remain buried—and they will go to any lengths to ensure that Brooke’s quest to uncover the truth of Jardine’s disappearance ends in tragedy...

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