Quantitative Finance With Python: A Practical Guide to Investment Management, Trading, and Financial Engineering - Original PDF
نویسندگان: C. Kelliher
خلاصه: In March 2018, the Federal Reserve (“Fed”) was in the midst of its first hiking cycle in over a decade, and the European Central Bank (“ECB”), still reeling from the Eurozone debt crisis, continued to charge investors for the privilege of borrowing money. US sovereign bonds (“Treasuries”) were yielding 3% over their German coun- terparts (“Bunds”), an all-time high, and unconventional monetary policy from the two central banks had pushed the cost of protection to an all-time low. Meanwhile, across the pond, a sophisticated Canadian pension flipped a rather esoteric coin: A so-called digital put-on Euro/Dollar, a currency pair that trades over a trillion dollars a day. On this crisp winter morning, the EURUSD exchange rate (“spot”) was 1.2500. If the flip resulted in heads and spot ended below 1.2500 in 2 years, the pension would receive $10 million. If the flip were tails and spot ended above 1.2500, the pension would have to pay $2.5 million. Naturally, the 4 to 1 asymmetry in the payout suggests that the odds of heads were only 25%. Interestingly, the flip yielded heads, and in 2 years, spot was below 1.2500