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Nuclear Weapon Reliability Definition - Original PDF
Nuclear Weapon Reliability Definition - Original PDF
نویسندگان: R. L. Bierbaum, J. J. Cashen, T. J. Kerschen, J. M. Sjulin, D. L. Wright خلاصه: Abstract The overarching goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapon reliability assessment process is to provide a quantitative metric that reflects the ability of the weapons to perform their intended function successfully. This white paper is intended to provide insight into the current and long-standing DOE definition of nuclear weapon reliability, which can be summarized as: l%e probability of achieving the specified yield, at the target, across the Stockpile-To-Target Sequence of environments, throughout the weapon’s lifetime, assuming proper inputs. This paper discusses the historical and academic bases for this definition and the larger Department of Defense (DoD) use planning context for the DOES reliability metric. Details and examples of each of the elements of the definition of reliability are provided. Finally, the historical evolution of uncertainty statements for DOE weapon reliability assessments is described. Current and future challenges for the nuclear weapon reliability community, including extended weapon lifetimes and reductions in the stockpile surveillance test program, are identified and discussed.

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