Nuclear Weapon Reliability Definition - Original PDF
نویسندگان: R. L. Bierbaum, J. J. Cashen, T. J. Kerschen, J. M. Sjulin, D. L. Wright
خلاصه: Abstract The overarching goal of the Department of Energy (DOE) nuclear weapon reliability
assessment process is to provide a quantitative metric that reflects the ability of the weapons to
perform their intended function successfully. This white paper is intended to provide insight into
the current and long-standing DOE definition of nuclear weapon reliability, which can be
summarized as:
l%e probability of achieving the specified yield, at the target, across the
Stockpile-To-Target Sequence of environments, throughout the weapon’s lifetime,
assuming proper inputs.
This paper discusses the historical and academic bases for this definition and the larger
Department of Defense (DoD) use planning context for the DOES reliability metric. Details and
examples of each of the elements of the definition of reliability are provided. Finally, the
historical evolution of uncertainty statements for DOE weapon reliability assessments is
described. Current and future challenges for the nuclear weapon reliability community, including
extended weapon lifetimes and reductions in the stockpile surveillance test program, are
identified and discussed.