Global Economic Challenges 6th International Conference on Banking and Finance Perspectives, Cuenca, Spain - Original PDF
نویسندگان: Nesrin Özataç • Korhan K. Gökmenoğlu Daniel Balsalobre Lorente Nigar Taşpınar • Bezhan Rustamov
خلاصه: Price movements in the energy market are crucial because energy plays a vital role in the world’s economies and human life. The high volatility in energy prices since the 1990s is due to several historical developments, including the deregulation of energy markets, the Asian financial crisis in 1997, and the 2008 global financial crisis (Lien et al., 2016; Lang & Auer, 2019) have increased the need for an appro- priate protection strategy. Hedging by using futures contracts makes the problem of “finding an appropriate hedge ratio” vital. In calculating the optimal hedge ratio (OHR), estimations are mostly based on the average (expected) relationship between spot and futures prices. This approach ignores the tail distribution of the variables (Lien et al., 2016; Shrestha et al., 2018). However, the widely documented non- normal distribution of financial variables makes considering the quantiles of the variables essential. To fill this gap, we used the recently developed quantile-on- quantile (Q-Q) (Sim & Zhou, 2015) approach to estimate the minimum-variance (MV) hedge ratio for crude oil, natural gas, and gasoline markets. Besides, to have a better understanding of the relationship between these variables, we examined long-run and causal relationships by using methods that consider the distribution of the variables.