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پزشکی، دندانپزشکی و داروسازی
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علوم زیستی و بیوتکنولوژی
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کامپیوتر و اینترنت
کتابهای کودکان و داستان
کسب و کار و اقتصاد
کشاورزی و دامپزشکی و غذا
معماری
مهندسی و فناوری
هنر و تئاتر
محصولات
5 Things You Never Knew About Hurricanes - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: 5 Things You Never Knew About Hurricanes Dr. Mark Guishard Director, Bermuda Weather Service Background Hurricanes are: Large low pressure systems triggered by pre-existing disturbances Fueled by the energy released from the ocean surface Source: NOAA Background Most of the energy and mass in a hurricane is focused quite near the centre Strongest in a concentric ring of severe weather, called the “eyewall” Surrounds a calm central “eye” Source: NASA Background June September Birthplaces of Hurricanes Background June September Birthplaces of Hurricanes Source: NOAA Background Hurricane Season: Jun. 1- Nov. 30 Background Sea Surface Temperature shows a direct relationship with hurricane activity – Represents the ocean energy source for fueling the storms Background Sea Surface Temperature shows a direct relationship with hurricane activity – Represents the ocean energy source for fueling the storms L H Heating In order to keep the heating in the core above the surface disturbance, there must be little or no shear. Strong shear in the medium levels would rip the storm apart. Background Sea Surface Temperature shows a direct relationship with hurricane activity – Represents the ocean energy source for fueling the storms Vertical wind shear has a destructive effect on storm formation L H Heating In order to keep the heating in the core above the surface disturbance, there must be little or no shear. Strong shear in the medium levels would rip the storm apart. L H Heating 1) El Niño Influences Atlantic Hurricane Numbers What is El Niño? –A climate cycle that occurs every few years. –A shift of warm surface water across the tropical Pacific from west to east. –Caused by the relaxation of the trade winds. 1 Average conditions - January - March El Niño conditions - January - March El Niño conditions Sea Surface Temperature 1 Named by South American fishermen for the Christ child. Warming of waters off Peru coincided with Christmas. Source: NOAA Average conditions - January - March El Niño conditions - January - March El Niño conditions Sea Surface Temperature 1 Named by South American fishermen for the Christ child. Warming of waters off Peru coincided with Christmas. The opposite effect is named “La Niña” La Niña conditions - January - March Source: NOAA El Niño Effects Increased wind shear downstream – suppressed hurricane formation in the main Atlantic development region 1 Source: NOAA Effects on Hurricane season The disruption of the upper winds translates to the Atlantic, suppressing Hurricane activity for El Niño years in this part of the world. The opposite occurs in a La Niña year, when Atlantic Hurricane Season tends to be very active. 1 1987 - an El Niño year Only 8 Named Storms in the Atlantic. But what else happened in 1987? Hurricane Emily! 1 Source: Unisys 1998 - A La Niña Year 14 Named Storms in the Atlantic. Cat 5 Hurricane Mitch dumped up to 800mm of rain within 48 hours in Honduras & Nicaragua. Mitch caused over 9,000 deaths. 1 Source: Unisys 2) Vulnerability to Hurricanes Vulnerability is the susceptibility to physical or emotional injury or attack. “Disasters occur when hazards meet vulnerability". A natural hazard will hence never result in a natural disaster in areas without vulnerability, e.g. strong earthquakes in uninhabited areas. Some factors influencing vulnerability: – Social – Physical 2 Source: Wikipedia Social aspects of vulnerability Awareness/Preparedness 1900 Galevston Hurricane – The Galveston Hurricane of 1900 is to date the deadliest natural disaster ever to strike the United States: estimated 8,000 fatalities. – Large death toll may be attributed to lack of awareness that the storm was coming 2 Source: Wikipedia Social aspects of vulnerability Miami Beach 1926 Wendler Collection Miami Beach 2006 Joel Gratz © 2006 2 50000 52000 54000 56000 58000 60000 62000 64000 66000 68000 1980 1991 2000 2010 2020 Projected Bermuda Population Growth Our own poulation density well exceeds 1000 people per km 2 Only forecast to get higher… 50000 52000 54000 56000 58000 60000 62000 64000 66000 68000 1980 1991 2000 2010 2020 2 Source: Government of Bermuda Dept. of Statistics Physical aspects of vulnerability Geography Hurricane Katrina, 2005 – City of New Orleans lies largely below sea level 2 Source: FEMA Events themselves drive vulnerability 2 Intensity: Andrew 1992 Mitch 1998 Fabian 2003 Frequency: Combinations of factors can maximize vulnerability 1970 Bhola Cyclone: Deadliest known tropical cyclone of all time – A powerful cyclone that hit Bangladesh on November 13, 1970 killed 500,000 people from storm surge, high winds, and flooding. 2005 Hurricane Katrina Factors: – Lack of Awareness &/or Preparedness – Geography – Population – Intensity 2 3) Global Warming and Hurricanes 3 Source: UEA NHC Best Track Storm Database 3 Source: Landsea, 2006 Bermuda Best Track Storms Historically Bermuda is affected on average ~1 every 2 years (not necessarily direct hits) 0 1 2 3 4 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 More recently… 3 Source: BWS Global Warming & Increase in Hurricane Frequency? 0 1 2 3 4 1895 1900 1905 1910 1915 1920 1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Two camps – fierce debate. Problems with conclusions made on both sides of argument. 3 Source: Landsea, 2006 4) Water is the biggest killer, not wind “If the projected rise in sea level due to global warming occurs, then the vulnerability to tropical cyclone storm surge flooding would increase.” Storm Surge is a dome of water driven by the persistent strong winds in a tropical system (not by the low central pressure!) Source: NOAA Storm Tide 4 Ocean WavesOcean Waves MWL Wave Setup ExtremeExtreme WindsWinds Wave Runup MSL datum Expected High Tide StormStorm TideTide Surge after Harper (2001) Storm Surge - Continental Effects Continental Shelf Ocean Direction of wave movement As waves move into a shallower environment, their amplitudes increase and wavelengths decrease. 4 Waves - Island effects On a small, isolated island such as Bermuda, this effect is small; Large waves are deflected around the sea mount, in the surrounding deep water. Amplitudes and wavelengths stay fairly constant. However, sea states can still be quite significant in tropical systems... Bermuda Sea Floor Direction of wave movement 4 Before and After the Hurricane Richelieu Apartments Pass Christian, MS Hurricane Camille 17 Aug 1969 4 Source: NOAA 4 Katrina Storm Surge Model 4 Source: LSU Katrina Storm Surge Map Source: FEMA 4 5) A Hurricane is not always a Hurricane… 5 Subtropical storms – about half of the storms we get in hurricane season are not even named by NHC Source: Guishard, 2007 October 2001: Subtropical Storm ⇒ Hurricane Karen 989 mb 5Source: UW-CIMSS Source: BWS In Bermuda, more gales come from marine winter storms than from hurricanes 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 1/1/2002 2/1/2002 3/1/2002 4/1/2002 5/1/2002 6/1/2002 7/1/2002 8/1/2002 9/1/2002 10/1/2002 11/1/2002 12/1/2002 1/1/2003 2/1/2003 3/1/2003 4/1/2003 5/1/2003 6/1/2003 7/1/2003 8/1/2003 9/1/2003 10/1/2003 11/1/2003 12/1/2003 1/1/2004 2/1/2004 3/1/2004 4/1/2004 5/1/2004 6/1/2004 7/1/2004 8/1/2004 9/1/2004 10/1/2004 11/1/2004 12/1/2004 1/1/2005 2/1/2005 3/1/2005 4/1/2005 5/1/2005 6/1/2005 7/1/2005 8/1/2005 9/1/2005 10/1/2005 11/1/2005 12/1/2005 1/1/2006 2/1/2006 3/1/2006 4/1/2006 5/1/2006 6/1/2006 7/1/2006 8/1/2006 9/1/2006 10/1/2006 11/1/2006 12/1/2006 1/1/2007 Fabian Florence Winter Winter Winter Winter 5 Bermuda daily average winds over 5 years Source: BWS Recap El Niño – Natural climate pattern – Reduces hurricane formation in the Atlantic… – …by changing the shear pattern in the main development region. Vulnerability to Hurricanes is compounded by social and physical aspects like – Geography, – Population and – Awareness, – in addition to the frequency and intensity of the events themselves. Recap The effects of global warming on hurricanes in the Atlantic are not as clear as they might appear at first. Unreliable database before: –Satellites and Radar –Aircraft reconnaissance –Weather Balloons Water is the biggest cause of fatalities in hurricanes, not direct wind strength. Hurricane force winds don't always come from what we classically think of as hurricanes. Any Questions? Dr. Mark Guishard Director, Bermuda Weather Service
The Classroom of Choice: Giving Students What They Need and Getting What You Want - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Teachers everywhere face the daily challenge of engaging students whose knowledge, skills, needs, and temperaments vary greatly. How does a teacher establish a learning environment that supports the class as a whole while meeting the particular needs of individual students? Teacher Jonathan C. Erwin believes the answer lies in offering real opportunities to students rather than throwing up the obstacles inherent to traditional discipline and motivation techniques. At the heart of his approach are the five basic human needs of William Glasser's Choice Theory: survival and security, love and belonging, power through cooperation and competency, freedom, and fun. By understanding and attending to these needs, teachers can customize and manage a classroom environment where students learn to motivate and monitor themselves. Drawing on theories and practices from experts in a variety of learning techniques, Erwin explores each of the five basic needs to create nearly 200 adaptable strategies for teaching and classroom management at any grade level. Readers will find dozens of ideas for helping students make positive changes, including * Improving their work habits, * Connecting curriculum with individual interests, * Opening lines of communication with teachers and other students, * Boosting self-worth through accomplishment, and * Supporting their classmates in cooperative work. Erwin ties everything together in a unit guide that allows teachers to develop a classroom profile based on the needs of individual students. The guide can be used with any district planning approach or curriculum. For teachers seeking a win-win situation in managing their classrooms, The Classroom of Choice is an excellent aid in creating a learning environment where students and teachers approach each day with energy and enthusiasm.
The Year-Round Messier Marathon Field Guide: With Complete Maps, Charts and Tips to Guide You to Enjoying the Most Famous List of Deep-Sky Objects - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Among the deepest satisfactions of amateur astronomy is knowing your way around the sky. From the familiar guideposts of the brightest stars, you confidently point your binoculars or telescope toward the Andromeda galaxy, the Hercules cluster, or the Lagoon nebula. This book was written for the person who wants tobecome deeply familiar with the most famous list of 110 deep-sky wonders, the Messier objects. Using bright guidepost stars and detailed sky charts, the novice soon learns how to find the nebulae, star clusters, and galaxies that every amateur astronomer should know. And you need not run this marathon just a few weeks a year. Even at the worst you will have about 90 of the 110 objects visible throughout the year! The observing techniques taught in this book are both easy to learn and powerful, suitable not only for the novice but also for the experienced amateur.By following the sequence of charts presented in the second half of the book, a beginner using Harvard Pennington's methods should be able to locate and identify 25 to 30 Messier objects at any time of year before midnight. By working systematically against time, by running the Messier Marathon the observer quickly hones crucial observing skills and soon gains a deep familiarity with the night sky. Once each year, on a moonless night during late March or early April, observers have an opportunity to test their skills by trying to observe all 110 objects that make u
You Can Quote Me On That: Greatest Tennis Quips, Insights And Zingers - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: You Can Quote Me On That isn’t about the polite, country-club sport where players shake hands over the net and offer congratulations on a fine drop shot. It views tennis from inside, where competition is grueling, tempers flare, and egos collide. Top tennis journalist Paul Fein has compiled hundreds of the most outrageous, most significant, and most illuminating quotes on, by, and about tennis’s biggest stars and hottest controversies.You want smack talk? How about Maria Sharapova brushing aside an intended compliment with “I’m not the next Kournikova—I want to win matches!” Wonder why Jimmy Connors was such a cutthroat? According to his mother, “Jimmy was taught to be a tiger on the court. When he was young, if I had a shot I could hit down his throat, I did. And I’d say, ‘See, Jimmy, even your mother will do that to you.’” Fein even delves into the gritty detail of players’ personal lives. Witness Andre Agassi’s explanation that “sex doesn’t interfere with your tennis; it’s staying out all night trying to find it that affects your tennis.” And of course legendary bad boy John McEnroe both fires off and gets hits with multiple zingers.Fein includes quotes of praise, thoughtful commentary, and interesting points about players, tournaments, and the game—where it’s been and where it’s headed. If it’s about tennis and worth remembering, well, You Can Quote Me On That.
American Dietetic Association Guide to Eating Right When You Have Diabetes - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: The definitive guide to eating well and staying healthy with diabetes"Nutrition is pivotal to diabetes care. This book is a terrific tool for managing diabetes through good nutrition. It's a guide you can use every day-a treasure chest of advice on how to eat healthfully."-Richard M. Bergenstal, MD, Executive DirectorInternational Diabetes Center, Minneapolis, MinnesotaFrom the American Dietetic Association comes this authoritative guide to choosing foods to control your blood sugar and maintain an active, healthy lifestyle. It provides the must-know basics of daily diabetes care-from designing a food plan and preventing low blood glucose levels to losing weight and carbohydrate counting-so you can personalize diabetes and food decisions to fit your needs. You'll see how to manage blood fat levels and blood pressure-an important part of diabetes care-and gain invaluable insight into making healthy food choices and planning tasty meals. You'll also find tips on reducing sugar and fat in foods; quick and easy meal ideas; and a special section on prevention of type 2 diabetes.* Detailed menu plans for daily caloric levels of 1,200, 1,500, 1,800, 2,000, and 2,500 calories* Includes fast-food restaurant and ethnic food guides* Ratings for high, low, and moderate glycemic index foods
Smart is the New Rich: If You Can't Afford It, Put it Down - PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: A practical way to think about money today Author and CNN veteran money correspondent Christine Romans believes we should live by three qualifiers: living within our means, living with less debt, and being less vulnerable. While some may say this is old-fashioned, today it's hard to argue with Romans' view. Smart is the New Rich explores how adopting a new approach to money can lead to a healthier financial lifestyle. Each chapter opens with a question about money to begin the conversation about earning, saving, spending, growing, and protecting your money. Using checklists and quizzes, Romans guides you through the "New Normal," helping you to think differently about your money and relearning good habits for prosperity. Reexamines the money rules abandoned during the consumer bubble and poses the essential questions we should ask ourselves before spend our money Provides an interactive, step-by-step guide to all things money, from credit, debt, and savings to investing, taxes, and mortgages A companion Web site allows you to chat with other readers about jobs, mortgage rates, investing, and saving For thirty years, the financial rules for life revolved around abundant credit. That bubble has burst. Smart is the New Rich addresses why these rules no longer apply, and reveals what it will take to make the right money choices moving forward. Five Retro Spending Rules After a generation where “me, more, now” was how we thought about our money, it’s time to walk through these five retro rules when you are about to part with your money. 1. If you don’t need it, don’t buy it. If you can’t afford it, put it down. It’s as simple as that. Ask the three key questions before parting with your cash. “Do I need this?” “Will it make my family better, smarter, more prepared?” “Can I even afford it?” Only you know the answers to those questions. And just asking them gives you pause to evaluate whether the dollar buys you an experience and an investment in your family and your future. 2. Think of money like nutrition. Is a purchase, whatever it is, something that is good for your body, or nothing more than a sugar rush. Prolific and random spending is the money equivalent of eating junk food. It might feel good at the time, but it hurts you in the long run and the limits your options later in life. 3. Negotiate everything. It seems gauche to call it haggling, so let’s call it negotiating. Your cell phone company, cable provider, car rental company, and even your doctor need your business. Politely ask if there are discounts. For travel and leisure, inquire about a complimentary upgrade if they won’t drop the price. (Vacations have never been more attainable--if you can afford them--this is a good time for breaks and discounts.) If you are polite and informed, you will be surprised. 4. Always save first. Do you know how much you are saving? Look at your pay stub. Calculate how much money you bring home after taxes. Make sure you are saving at least 6 percent and hopefully 10 percent of that for your future. Save first. 5. Don’t deny yourself. As confidence in the economy returns, the people who have the cushion to spend money will be critical to restore the economy. Every dollar spent at the pizza parlor, on video games, at the zoo sustains jobs. The key is to know what you can live without. The message for anyone struggling with money: The only thing you can control right this second is how the money leaves your hands.
So You're 60 - PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Forget the myth that you'll be a sort of elder statesperson to the rest of the family. Your life will now consist of sleeping during sex instead of after it, and going to more funerals than weddings. You'll bend down to touch your toes and then forget what you went down there for. On the plus side, you can look forward to getting your own stair-lift, and can now get away with making no effort whatsoever to lose weight. And all those charities you gave to - it's payback time!
The Smart Canadian's Guide to Saving Money: Pat Foran is On Your Side, Helping You to Stop Wasting Money, Start Saving It, and Build Your Wealth 2 E - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Canada’s top consumer advocate returns with more financial advice.Canadian consumers are focused on spending and managing what money they do have wisely, but have more questions than answers on most financial topics. Television personality and consumer advocate Pat Foran shares tips and strategies about the questions and issues he sees most often, and explains how some little things can soon add up to a lot of money. Some of the topics covered include: Credit and loyalty cards, and what kind of deal they really areHow much insurance is enough – and what kinds do most people need?How to shop for a vehicle, and if it’s worth it to import from the USMortgages, tax breaks, and other complicated financial decisionsGetting the most bang for your buck, whether while shopping or travellingPacked with money-saving advice, this title will also include the latest information on marketplace trends, the investment climate, housing prices, interest rates, and other techniques for savings. As an added bonus, Pat has included quotes and comments from prominent Canadian businesspeople and celebrities about the best financial advice they’ve received in their lifetimes.Pat Foran is seen by millions of Canadians each week as the Consumer Reporter for CFTO News, and Consumer Expert on CTV’s Canada AM. His “Consumer Alert” segment is currently on CFTO’s noon, six o’clock and eleven-thirty newscasts, five days a week with an audience of 700,000 viewers, and he appears on Canada AM, Canada’s number-one national morning show every week, dispensing financial and consumer advice.
Principles of Inventory Management: When You Are Down to Four, Order More - Original PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: nventories are prevalent everywhere in the commercial world, whether it be in retail stores, manufacturing facilities, government stockpile material, Federal Reserve banks, or even your own household. This textbook examines basic mathematical techniques used to sufficiently manage inventories by using various computational methods and mathematical models. Such models discussed include: EOQ model and extensions, power-of-two models, single and multi-period models, probabilistic lot sizing models, multi-echelon stochastic models, Laplace and Normal demand models, exact Poisson model, and many more. Principles of Inventory Management begins with an introductory chapter in which the basics of inventory systems and mathematical assumptions for all models are grouped together. The text is presented in a way such that each section can be read independently, and so the order in which the reader approaches the book can be inconsequential. It contains both deterministic and stochastic models along with algorithms that can be employed to find solutions to a variety of inventory control problems. Key topics include: * Economic order quantity (EOQ) model * Power-of-two policies * Dynamic lot sizing * Single and multi-period stochastic models * Echelon-based approaches * Multi-echelon systems * Single and multi-item models With exercises at the end of each chapter and a clear, systematic exposition, this textbook will appeal to advanced undergraduate and first-year graduate students in operations research, industrial engineering, and quantitative MBA programs. It also serves as a reference for professionals in both industry and government worlds. The prerequisite courses include introductory optimization methods, probability theory (non-measure theoretic), and stochastic processes.
The Confidence Plan: How to Build a Stronger You - PDF
نویسندگان: خلاصه: Few other factors impact your life as much as your personal confidence. The Confidence Plan is a revolutionary guide that gives you a step-by-step process for building a more confident you. This smart and practical book addresses five essential paths to help you boost your self-confidence.Many people want to grow in confidence, but they try to do it without a plan. And while most confidence books may make you temporarily feel good, they fail to give you concrete ways to grow. The Confidence Plan changes that by offering a six-week practical program for taking your confidence to the next level.Using examples of unstoppable people whose mindsets have become even stronger than before, Dr. Tim Ursiny shows how you can do the same by following a step-by-step program focusing on:o Mental strategies for forming beliefs that lead to peak performanceo Emotional approaches for feeling a deep confidenceo Behavioral tactics for creating actions that lead to successo Relationship factors to develop a community that recharges youo Spiritual centeredness that creates unbreakable confidence by living your purpose and mission Dr. Tim's unique, holistic approach guides you through the science and habit of optimism and success, including: o Research on what makes people happy and successful o Links to free guides and resources for trainers, coaches and individuals o Practical, immediate action steps for busy people.No matter what your current level of confidence, The Confidence Plan can help you take it to the next level.آیا کتاب مورد نظر هنوز بر روی سایت قرار نگرفته است؟ جای نگرانی نیست! کافی است بر روی گزینه سفارش کتاب کلیک کرده و درخواست خود را ثبت کنید. در کمتر از چند ساعت کتاب شما را آماده خواهیم کرد.