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Author(s): Perry J. Kaufman

Series: Wiley Trading

Publisher: Wiley, Year: 2013

ISBN: 1118043561,9781118043561

vii Contents Preface to the Fifth Edition xv CHAPTER 1 Introduction 1 The Expanding Role of Technical Analysis 1 Convergence of Trading Styles in Stocks and Futures 2 A Line in the Sand between Fundamentals and Technical Analysis 4 Professional and Amateur 5 Random Walk 6 Deciding on a Trading Style 8 Measuring Noise 10 Maturing Markets and Globalization 14 Background Material 16 Research Guidelines 18 Objectives of This Book 19 Profile of a Trading System 20 A Word about the Notation Used in This Book 23 And Finally . . . 23 CHAPTER 2 Basic Concepts and Calculations 25 About Data and Averaging 26 On Average 30 Price Distribution 33 Moments of the Distribution: Variance, Skewness, and Kurtosis 37 Standardizing Risk and Return 48 The Index 54 Standard Measurements of Performance 58 Probability 59 Supply and Demand 66 viii CONTENTS CHAPTER 3 Charting 79 Finding Consistent Patterns 80 What Causes the Major Price Moves and Trends? 82 The Bar Chart and Its Interpretation by Charles Dow 83 Chart Formations 92 Trendlines 94 One-Day Patterns 102 Continuation Patterns 113 Basic Concepts in Chart Trading 117 Accumulation and Distribution—Bottoms and Tops 118 Episodic Patterns 132 Price Objectives for Bar Charting 133 Implied Strategies in Candlestick Charts 139 Practical Use of the Bar Chart 144 Evolution in Price Patterns 148 CHAPTER 4 Charting Systems and Techniques 151 Dunnigan and the Thrust Method 152 Nofri’s Congestion-Phase System 155 Outside Days with an Outside Close 157 Inside Days 158 Pivot Points 158 Action and Reaction 159 Channel Breakout 167 Moving Channels 170 Commodity Channel Index 171 Wyckoff’s Combined Techniques 172 Complex Patterns 173 A Study of Charting Patterns 176 Bulkowski’s Chart Pattern Rankings 178 CHAPTER 5 Event-Driven Trends 181 Swing Trading 182 Constructing a Swing Chart Using a Swing Filter 184 Point-and-Figure Charting 195 The N-Day Breakout 222 CHAPTER 6 Regression Analysis 235 Components of a Time Series 235 Characteristics of the Price Data 236 Contents ix Linear Regression 238 Linear Correlation 248 Nonlinear Approximations for Two Variables 252 Transforming Nonlinear to Linear 256 Evaluation of Two-Variable Techniques 257 Multivariate Approximations 259 ARIMA 267 Basic Trading Signals Using a Linear Regression Model 273 Measuring Market Strength 276 CHAPTER 7 Time-Based Trend Calculations 279 Forecasting and Following 279 Price Change over Time 284 The Moving Average 284 Geometric Moving Average 292 Accumulative Average 293 Reset Accumulative Average 293 Drop-Off Effect 293 Exponential Smoothing 293 Plotting Lags and Leads 307 CHAPTER 8 Trend Systems 309 Why Trend Systems Work 309 Basic Buy and Sell Signals 314 Bands and Channels 320 Applications of a Single Trend 330 Comparison of Major Trend Systems 336 Techniques Using Two Trendlines 350 Multiple Trends and Common Sense 356 Comprehensive Studies 359 Selecting the Right Trend Method and Speed 359 Moving Average Sequences: Signal Progression 363 Early Exits from a Trend 366 Moving Average Projected Crossovers 366 CHAPTER 9 Momentum and Oscillators 369 Momentum 370 Divergence Index 384 Oscillators 385 x CONTENTS Double-Smoothed Momentum 404 Velocity and Acceleration 412 Hybrid Momentum Techniques 416 Momentum Divergence 418 Some Final Comments on Momentum 426 CHAPTER 10 Seasonality and Calendar Patterns 427 A Consistent Factor 428 The Seasonal Pattern 429 Popular Methods for Calculating Seasonality 430 Seasonal Filters 456 Seasonality and the Stock Market 478 Common Sense and Seasonality 483 CHAPTER 11 Cycle Analysis 485 Cycle Basics 485 Uncovering the Cycle 494 Maximum Entropy 514 Cycle Channel Index 520 Short Cycle Indicator 521 Phasing 523 CHAPTER 12 Volume, Open Interest, and Breadth 527 A Special Case for Futures Volume 527 Variations from the Normal Patterns 529 Standard Interpretation 531 Volume Indicators 535 Breadth Indicators 546 Interpreting Volume and Breadth Systematically 554 An Integrated Probability Model 558 Intraday Volume Patterns 559 Filtering Low Volume 562 Market Facilitation Index 564 CHAPTER 13 Spreads and Arbitrage 565 Dynamics of Futures Intramarket Spreads 566 Carrying Charges 567 Spreads in Stocks 569 Spread and Arbitrage Relationships 570 Risk Reduction in Spreads 571 Contents xi Arbitrage 572 The Carry Trade 596 Changing Spread Relationships 600 Intermarket Spreads 602 CHAPTER 14 Behavioral Techniques 617 Measuring the News 618 Event Trading 623 Commitment of Traders Report 635 Opinion and Contrary Opinion 641 Fibonacci and Human Behavior 648 Elliott’s Wave Principle 651 Price Target Constructions Using the Fibonacci Ratio 660 Fischer’s Golden Section Compass System 662 W. D. Gann—Time and Space 666 Financial Astrology 671 CHAPTER 15 Pattern Recognition 685 Projecting Daily Highs and Lows 687 Time of Day 689 Opening Gaps 699 Weekday, Weekend, and Reversal Patterns 711 Computer-Based Pattern Recognition 732 Artificial Intelligence Methods 735 CHAPTER 16 Day Trading 737 Impact of Transaction Costs 738 Key Elements of Day Trading 744 Trading Using Price Patterns 753 Intraday Breakout Systems 759 Intraday Volume Patterns 774 Intraday Price Shocks 775 CHAPTER 17 Adaptive Techniques 779 Adaptive Trend Calculations 779 Adaptive Variations 788 Other Adaptive Momentum Calculations 793 Adaptive Intraday Breakout System 796 An Adaptive Process 797 Considering Adaptive Methods 798 xii CONTENTS CHAPTER 18 Price Distribution Systems 801 Measuring Distribution 801 Use of Price Distributions and Patterns to Anticipate Moves 805 Distribution of Prices 811 Steidlmayer’s Market Profile 822 Using Daily Distributions to Identify Support and Resistance 830 CHAPTER 19 Multiple Time Frames 833 Tuning Two Time Frames to Work Together 833 Elder’s Triple-Screen Trading System 835 Robert Krausz’s Multiple Time Frames 838 Martin Pring’s KST System 842 CHAPTER 20 Advanced Techniques 845 Measuring Volatility 845 Using Volatility for Trading 856 Trade Selection Using Volatility 861 Liquidity 867 Trends and Price Noise 868 Trends and Interest Rate Carry 871 Expert Systems 871 Fuzzy Logic 875 Fractals, Chaos, and Entropy 880 Neural Networks 886 Genetic Algorithms 895 Replication of Hedge Funds 902 CHAPTER 21 System Testing 905 Expectations 907 Identifying the Parameters 908 Selecting the Test Data 910 Testing Integrity 916 Searching for the Best Result 919 Visualizing and Interpreting Test Results 922 Large-Scale Testing 932 Refining the Strategy Rules 937 Arriving at Valid Test Results 938 Comparing the Results of Two Systems 946 Profiting from the Worst Results 950 Contents xiii Retesting for Changing Parameters 951 Testing across a Wide Range of Markets 954 Price Shocks 970 Anatomy of an Optimization 972 Summarizing Robustness 976 CHAPTER 22 Practical Considerations 983 Use and Abuse of the Computer 984 Extreme Events 992 Gambling Techniques—The Theory of Runs 1000 Selective Trading 1011 System Trade-Offs 1012 Trading Limits and Disconnected Markets 1018 Silver and NASDAQ—Too Good to Be True 1020 Similarity of Systematic Trading Signals 1021 CHAPTER 23 Risk Control 1027 Mistaking Luck for Skill 1027 Risk Aversion 1028 Liquidity 1033 Measuring Return and Risk 1034 Leverage 1046 Leverage Based on Exposure 1049 Individual Trade Risk 1050 Kaufman on Stops and Profit-Taking 1059 Ranking of Markets for Selection 1062 Probability of Success and Ruin 1072 Entering a Position 1076 Compounding a Position 1080 Equity Trends 1085 Investing and Reinvesting: Optimal f 1088 Comparing Expected and Actual Results 1092 CHAPTER 24 Diversifi cation and Portfolio Allocation 1099 Diversification 1100 Changing Correlations 1105 Types of Portfolio Models 1105 Classic Portfolio Allocation Calculations 1107 Finding Optimal Portfolio Allocation Using Excel’s Solver 1109 Kaufman’s Genetic Algorithm Solution to Portfolio Allocation (GASP) 1114 Volatility Stabilization 1142 xiv CONTENTS APPENDIX 1 Statistical Tables 1147 APPENDIX 2 Matrix Solution to Linear Equations and Markov Chains 1151 APPENDIX 3 Trigonometric Regression for Finding Cycles 1161 Bibliography 1175 About the Companion Website 1191 Index 1193

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