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Author(s): Thomas Oberlechner

Series: Wiley trading series

Publisher: Wiley, Year: 2004

ISBN: 047084406X,9780470844069,9780470012017

reface ix Acknowledgments xi Introduction xv 1 From Rational Decision-Makers to a Psychology of the Foreign Exchange Market 1 Traditional vs. behavioral finance: A paradigmatic shift in approaching financial markets 3 Economic defense of the efficient market view 7 Traders’ views of rationality in the foreign exchange market 10 Toward a market psychology 14 Abbreviated references 18 2 Psychology of Trading Decisions 21 Trading decisions: The view of traders 21 Excursion: Understanding decision-making in financial markets 27 From objective prices to psychological theories of decision-making 27 Normative–economic and descriptive–psychological approaches 30 Social herding dynamics 34 Herding and psychological conformity 34 Herding dynamics in the foreign exchange market 36 Affects 41 Status quo tendency 44 Overconfidence 47 Trading intuition: Bridging affects and cognitions 51 vi Contents Cognitions 55 Heuristics 57 Representativeness 58 Availability 63 Anchoring and adjustment 64 Hindsight bias 66 Abbreviated references 67 3 Risk-Taking in Trading Decisions 71 Asymmetric risk-taking 72 Framing and mental accounting 77 Managing trading risk: Institutional and personal strategies 83 Abbreviated references 87 4 Expectations in the Foreign Exchange Market 89 Expectations: A market time machine 92 Fundamental and technical/chartist analysis 94 Psychological attitudes and market expectations 108 Social dynamics, meta-expectations, and the financial news media 117 Abbreviated references 123 5 News and Rumors 125 Characteristics of important information 127 From news sources to information loops 131 Information sources of foreign exchange traders 131 Information sources of financial journalists 135 Implications for collective market information-processing 137 Reporting trends and interdependency 139 Market rumors 143 Abreviated references 148 6 Personality Psychology of Traders 149 The role of personality in trading 150 What makes successful traders? 153 Disciplined cooperation 154 Tackling decisions 156 Market meaning-making 157 Emotional stability 157 Information-processing 159 Interested integrity 159 Autonomous organization 159 Information handling 160 Market applications 163 Abbreviated references 164 7 Surfing the Market on Metaphors 167 Main market metaphors 168 The foreign exchange market as a bazaar 171 The foreign exchange market as a machine 172 The foreign exchange market as a living being 173 The foreign exchange market as gambling 175 The foreign exchange market as sports 176 The foreign exchange market as war 177 The foreign exchange market as an ocean 178 Metaphors shape market perspectives 180 Market metaphors are about the psychological ‘‘other’’ 180 Market metaphors are about market predictability 183 Explicit and implicit metaphors of the foreign exchange market 185 Market metaphors in action 188 What we can learn from market metaphors 192 Abbreviated references 193 8 The Foreign Exchange Market—A Psychological Construct 195 The market as a construct and illusion 198 Market constructs change 200 Abbreviated references 204 9 The Basics 207 Function and scope of the market 207 Instruments 211 Trading 212 Dealing room structure 213 Market players 216 Commercial and investment banks 216 Central banks 217 Brokers 218 Investment companies, pension funds, and hedge funds 219 Corporations and multinational companies 220 Individuals 221 Global financial news agencies 222 Abbreviated references 222 Contents vii Appendix: The European and the North American Survey 225 Abbreviated references 227 References 229 Index 249

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