لایب سان

توضیحات کتاب :

n Part I of the present book, we introduce the reader to the method- ology used for scenario building and alternative futures analysis. First, we discuss how historical path-dependence and the presence of mega- trends “shape” the future (Chapter 1). We use a multidirectional approach through pastcasting and backcasting to highlight how the past, the present, and the future are connected through history and the dynamic presence of economic, social, and political megatrends. Second, we explore the “art” of forecasting, which is a combination of analytical skills, creativity, and a multidisciplinary outlook (Chapter 2). Essentially, we provide a step-by-step guide for scenario building analysis and generate the four possible scenarios for Greece in the next decade. Third, we high- light the importance of a series of contextual or “swinging” factors for the future (Chapter 3). Such factors concern the social and political settings, cultural values, and the effects of irreducible uncertainty. The analysis of the swinging factors is crucial because it facilitates speculation regarding which scenario is more likely to prevail.1