لایب سان

ISBN-13: 978-1119596554

ISBN-10: 1119596556

Title Page Copyright Page Table of Contents Introduction About This Book Foolish Assumptions Icons Used in This Book Where to Go from Here Part 1 Getting Started with Technical Analysis Chapter 1 Introducing Technical Analysis Stepping Up to Science Unpacking Lingo Buy-and-Hold Is Bunk Recognizing Who Uses Technical Analysis Remembering the Trend Is Your Friend Charting your path Trendiness versus trendedness Picking a time frame Viewing the Scope of Technical Analysis Charting Market timing Trend-following Technical analysis Algorithmic trading Why Technical Analysis Works and What Can Go Wrong Setting new rules Controlling losses to protect gains Why Technical Analysis Gets a Bad Rap Beating the market is hard, hard work The truly random — one-time Shocks Finding Order What You Need to Get Started Chapter 2 Tapping into the Wisdom of the Crowd Comprehending the Conventional Supply/Demand Model The eBay Model of Supply and Demand Securities aren’t socks: The demand effect Creating demand from scratch Identifying Crowd Behavior Defining Normal Reverting to the mean Trading mean reversion Breaking Normal Going against the grain: Retracements Catching a falling knife: Estimating where and when a retracement will stop Accepting When the Crowd Is Extreme Avoiding stampedes Lesser devilry — playing games with traders’ heads Chapter 3 Trade What You See: Market Sentiment Where Market Sentiment Comes from and What It’s Good For Thinking Outside the Chart: Gauging Sentiment Monitoring investors: The bull/bear ratio Following the money: Breadth indicators Following the betting: The put/call ratio Viewing volatility: The VIX New and improved sentiment indicators Getting the Lowdown on Volume Tracking on-balance volume Refining volume indicators Leading the way with spikes Getting a two-for-the price-of-one coupon Blindsiding Yourself Understanding confirmation bias and anchoring Being aware of potential errors Thinking Scientifically Humility: Conditions and contingencies Sample size Chapter 4 Gaining Critical Advantage from Indicators Overcoming Noise Distinguishing between noise and an Event Knowing where noise comes from Noise from inside the market Indicators Give You the Edge Classifying indicators Understanding what indicators identify Choosing your trading style Examining How Indicators Work Finding relevant time frames Heeding indicator signals Establishing Benchmark Levels Choosing Indicators Examining Indicators in Detail Constructing a backtest The other top metrics Fixing the indicator Evaluating the risks of backtesting Chapter 5 Managing the Trade Building Trading Rules Finding your risk profile . . . not yet Adhering to the no-guru rule Creating your trading plan with five easy rules Combining indicators with trading rules Trading styles Knowing How Much Is Enough Controlling Losses Using the First Line of Defense: Stop-Loss Orders Mental stops are hogwash Sorting out the types of stops Adjusting Positions Reducing positions Adding to positions Scaling in and out 2.0 Applying stops to adjusted positions Managing Your Trades Like a Pro Introducing positive expectancy Measuring the trade Considering your stake Part 2 Building Indicators from the Ground Up Chapter 6 Reading Basic Bars: How to Pounce on Opportunities Building Basic Bars Reality in a nutshell Setting the tone: The opening price Summarizing sentiment: The closing price Going up: The high Getting to the bottom of it: The low Putting It All Together: Using Bars to Identify Trends Identifying an uptrend Pinpointing a downtrend Overcoming Murky Bar Waters Paying heed to bar series Knowing when bar reading doesn’t work Framing Your Bars Using daily data Zooming out to a higher time frame Zooming in to a shorter time frame Applying Bar Reading in Real Time Chapter 7 Special Bars — An Early Warning System Finding Clues to Trader Sentiment Tick and bar placement Trading range Identifying Common Special Bars Closing on a high note Spending the day inside Getting outside for the day Finding the close at the open Decoding Spikes Getting Gaps Pinpointing a gap Using gaps to your advantage Filling the Gap Using the Trading Range as a Tool Paying attention to a changing range Determining the meaning of a range change Looking at the average trading range Chapter 8 Redrawing the Price Bar: Japanese Candlesticks Appreciating the Candlestick Advantage Dissecting the Anatomy of a Candlestick Drawing the real body Doing without a real body: The doji Catching the shadow Sizing Up Emotions Identifying Special Emotional Extreme Candlestick Patterns Interpreting candlestick patterns Turning to reversal patterns Continuation patterns Combining Candlesticks with Other Indicators Trading on Candlesticks Alone Part 3 Finding Patterns Chapter 9 Seeing Patterns Introducing Patterns Using imagination Coloring inside the lines Cozying Up to Continuation Patterns Ascending and descending triangles Dead-cat bounce Recognizing Classic Reversal Patterns Double bottom Double tops The ultimate triple top: Head-and-shoulders Evaluating the Measured Move Taking dictation from the pattern Resuming the trend after retracement Measuring from the gap Chapter 10 Drawing Trendlines Looking Closely at a Price Chart Following the Rules with Rule-Based Trendlines Understanding the seductive zigzag Drawing support and resistance lines Using the support line to enter and exit Noting breakouts and false breakouts Using resistance to enter and exit Being aware of the 1-2-3 Rule Playing games with support and resistance lines Drawing Internal Trendlines Rules for drawing a linear regression Identifying trendedness Using the linear regression Chapter 11 Transforming Channels into Forecasts Diving into Channel-Drawing Basics The swing bar problem Drawing channels by hand Considering the benefits of channels Delving into the drawbacks of channels Channeling to make gains and avoid losses Riding the Regression Range Introducing the standard error Drawing a linear regression channel Confirming hand-drawn channels Sizing up the special features of the linear regression channel Discovering the drawbacks of linear regression channels Dealing with Breakouts Distinguishing between false breakouts and the real thing Putting breakouts into context Examining Pivot Point Support and Resistance Channel Calculating the first zone of support and resistance Using pivot support and resistance Part 4 Dynamic Analysis Chapter 12 Using Dynamic Lines Introducing the Simple Moving Average Starting with the crossover rule Using the moving average level rule Dealing with limitations Comparing moving average rules with Donchian rules Magic moving average numbers Adjusting the Moving Average Weighted and exponential moving averages Adaptive moving averages Wild and woolly moving averages Choosing a moving average type Using Multiple Moving Averages Putting two moving averages into play Trying the three-way approach Throw them all at the wall and see what sticks Delving into Moving Average Convergence and Divergence Calculating convergence and divergence Creating a decision tool Interpreting the MACD Chapter 13 Measuring Momentum Doing the Math: Calculating Momentum Simple momentum Using the rate-of-change method Pondering the Trickier Aspects of Momentum Smoothing price changes Filtering momentum Applying Momentum Discovering divergence Confirming trend indicators Determining the Relative Strength Index (RSI) Calculating the RSI Picturing RSI Filtering RSI Using the Rest of the Price Bar: The Stochastic Oscillator Step 1: Putting a number to the fast stochastic %K Step 2: Refining %K with %D Fiddling with the stochastic oscillator on the chart Chapter 14 Estimating Volatility Catching a Slippery Concept How volatility arises Low volatility with trending Low volatility without trending High volatility with trending High volatility without trending Measuring Volatility Tracking the maximum move Considering the standard deviation Using the average true range indicator Applying Volatility Measures: Bollinger Bands Applying Stops with Average True Range Bands Chapter 15 Ignoring Time to Create Better Timing Focusing on Tick Bars: In the Spirit of Ignoring Time Narrowing the Focus to the Move Itself: The Constant Range Bar Defining a constant range bar Identifying what criteria are needed Catching the Big Kahuna: Point-and-Figure Charts Visualizing What’s Important Putting each move into a column Dealing with box size Drawing the daily chart Applying Patterns Support and resistance Double and triple tops and bottoms Projecting Prices after a Breakout Using vertical price projection Applying horizontal projection Combining P&F Techniques with Other Indicators Chapter 16 Combining Techniques Adding a New Indicator: Introducing Complexity Choosing primary and secondary indicators Inserting unexpected validators Studying a classic combination Sailing into Outer Space The Conquistador Wave with relative strength Enhancing gains with selective timing Trading with Limited Expectancy: Semi-System, Setup, and Guerilla Trading Semi-system “discretionary” trading Solving the squaring problem — setups Guerrilla trading Chapter 17 Judging Cycles and Waves Defining a Cycle and a Wave Starting with economics Moving on to magic numbers Using cycles Cycling with Supply and Demand — The Pragmatic Mr. Wyckoff Finding Universal Harmony — Hurst’s Magic Numbers Looking to the Moon and the Stars Examining the lunar cycle Adding more celestial bodies Including the sun Figuring out what’s (maybe) wrong with astronomy cycle theories Following the Earth’s Axis: Seasonality and Calendar Effects Differentiating between seasonality and calendar effects The most well-known calendar effects Using seasonality and calendar effects Examining Big-Picture Cycle Theories Shining a Spotlight on the Magnificent Mr. Gann Applying core Gann concepts Celebrating Gann’s 50 percent retracement rule Embracing the Most Popular Wave Idea — The Elliott Wave Looking closer at the Elliott Wave Validating retracements Chapter 18 The Mind-Blowing Ichimoku Taking a Closer Look at Ichimoku Defining ichimoku and its characteristics Eyeing ichimoku’s differences with conventional technical analysis Adapting to new core concepts Building a cloud: Starting with moving averages Grasping Why Analysts Rely on Ichimoku and Why You Can Using Ichimoku in Your Analysis Venturing inside the cloud Changing time frames Trading with Ichimoku Part 5 The Part of Tens Chapter 19 Ten Secrets of the Top Technical Traders Appreciate Probability Backtesting Matters The Trend Is Your Friend Entries Count as Much as Exits Stops Aren’t Optional Treat Trading as a Business Eat Your Spinach Technical Stuff Never Goes out of Date Diversify Swallow Hard and Accept Some Math Chapter 20 Ten Rules for Working with Indicators Don’t Jump the Gun Defeat Your Math Gremlins Embrace Patterns Use Support and Resistance Follow the Breakout Principle Watch for Convergence and Divergence Backtest or Practice-Trade Honestly Accept That Your Indicators Will Fail Get Over the Idea of Secret Indicators Open Your Mind Appendix: Additional Resources The Bare Minimum Charting software Online resources Additional Reading My favorites Encyclopedias and reference guides Classics Special areas Money management Probability and statistics Index EULA

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