Using Moving Averages and Relative Strength Performance to Beat the Index 3 Then the small investor and the pro have the same information at the same time. This is also true for the small trader versus the professional trader. Stay tuned to CNBC, Fox, and Bloomberg for the news that nobody knew. David Einhorn, a famous hedge fund manager, exposed Green Moun- tain Coffee when he went public with his thesis on why the stock was a poor investment. Even if you were the last to hear this research from Einhorn, you made money on Green Mountain as it went down. Sometimes it pays to listen to the TV news or attend conferences to hear speakers like Einhorn. (We will look at Green Mountain Coffee in Chapter 8.) APPLE COMPUTER’S 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE The first and easiest way to make money in the stock market is to buy a company whose products are really “cool” and whose products you are us- ing yourself. Peter Lynch was a proponent of this approach for the small investor. Such companies are making plenty of money and growing with new products. Apple is a good example. It is also possible that a company is mak- ing popular products that you are using and the company is losing money on every sale they make. You don’t want this company! So always check the chart first and then the fundamental analysts to avoid these momentum chart traps. Just because the chart is good does not mean it has good fundamen- tals and is a solid, real company. Penny stock scams show stocks with good charts and companies with no fundamental reason for existing. Notice in Exhibit 1.1 that the initial, long-term buy signal for Apple in 2009 is when price moved above the 200-day moving average. This techni- cal analysis signal is widely used by most long-term investors. It is the solid trend line moving up under price on Exhibit 1.1. That long-term uptrend is still in place. Portfolio managers dream of stock moves like this one, where price moves from $100 to $600 in less than four years. Is it any wonder that almost every portfolio manager has Apple in his or her portfolio? The small investor has a better chance of quickly buying this stock at its low and sell- ing it at its high, unlike the portfolio manager with millions of shares to buy. Also notice that every time the sellers showed up in red, taking price down on the chart, they were quickly stopped, not even able to move price down to the 200-day moving average. The first real test by the sellers tak- ing price down to test the 200-day line did not happen until the middle of 2011. Price still failed to violate the 200-day, long-term uptrend. Every test by the sellers that fails to break below the 200-day long-term uptrend is a confirmation signal that the positive uptrend will continue. It is a signal to buy on weakness for long-term investors. This is the first and most important technical analysis signal for investo
چکیده فارسی
استفاده از میانگین‌های متحرک و عملکرد نسبی قدرت برای شکست دادن شاخص 3 سپس سرمایه‌گذار کوچک و حرفه‌ای اطلاعات یکسانی دارند. این در مورد معامله گر کوچک در مقابل معامله گر حرفه ای نیز صادق است. برای اخباری که هیچ کس نمی دانست، با CNBC، فاکس و بلومبرگ همراه باشید. دیوید آینهورن، یک مدیر معروف صندوق تامینی، زمانی که با تز خود در مورد اینکه چرا سهام سرمایه گذاری ضعیفی است، در معرض دید عموم قرار گرفت، قهوه کوه سبز را افشا کرد. حتی اگر آخرین نفری بودید که این تحقیق را از آینهورن شنیدید، با پایین آمدن آن در کوه سبز درآمد کسب کردید. گاهی اوقات گوش دادن به اخبار تلویزیون یا شرکت در کنفرانس ها برای شنیدن سخنرانانی مانند Einhorn مفید است. (ما در فصل 8 به قهوه سبز کوه نگاه خواهیم کرد.) میانگین متحرک 200 روزه رایانه اپل اولین و ساده ترین راه برای کسب درآمد در بازار سهام این است که شرکتی را بخرید که محصولاتش واقعاً «باحال» هستند و شما محصولاتش ما هستید. - خودت را بگير پیتر لینچ از طرفداران این رویکرد برای سرمایه گذاران کوچک بود. چنین شرکت هایی با محصولات جدید پول زیادی به دست می آورند و رشد می کنند. اپل مثال خوبی است. همچنین این امکان وجود دارد که یک شرکت محصولات محبوبی را که شما استفاده می کنید تولید می کند و شرکت در هر فروش که انجام می دهد ضرر می کند. شما این شرکت را نمی خواهید! بنابراین همیشه ابتدا نمودار و سپس تحلیلگران بنیادی را بررسی کنید تا از این تله‌های نمودار حرکتی جلوگیری کنید. فقط به این دلیل که نمودار خوب است، به این معنا نیست که اصول اولیه خوبی دارد و یک شرکت مستحکم و واقعی است. کلاهبرداری‌های سهام پنی سهام‌هایی را با نمودارهای خوب و شرکت‌هایی را نشان می‌دهند که هیچ دلیل اساسی برای وجود ندارند. در شکل 1.1 توجه کنید که سیگنال خرید اولیه و بلندمدت برای اپل در سال 2009 زمانی است که قیمت به بالاتر از میانگین متحرک 200 روزه رفت. این سیگنال تحلیل فنی به طور گسترده توسط اکثر سرمایه گذاران بلند مدت استفاده می شود. این خط روند ثابتی است که در شکل 1.1 زیر قیمت بالا می رود. این روند صعودی بلندمدت همچنان پابرجاست. مدیران پورتفولیو رویای حرکت سهام مانند این را در سر می پرورانند که در آن قیمت در کمتر از چهار سال از 100 دلار به 600 دلار می رسد. آیا جای تعجب است که تقریباً هر مدیر سبد سهام اپل را در کارنامه خود دارد؟ سرمایه‌گذار کوچک شانس بیشتری برای خرید سریع این سهام در پایین‌ترین حد و فروش آن در بالاترین قیمت دارد، برخلاف مدیر سبد سهام که میلیون‌ها سهم برای خرید دارد. همچنین توجه داشته باشید که هر بار که فروشندگان با رنگ قرمز ظاهر می‌شوند و قیمت را در نمودار پایین می‌آورند، به سرعت متوقف می‌شوند، حتی نمی‌توانند قیمت را به میانگین متحرک 200 روزه برسانند. اولین آزمایش واقعی توسط فروشندگانی که قیمت را پایین آوردند تا خط 200 روزه را آزمایش کنند تا اواسط سال 2011 انجام نشد. قیمت همچنان نتوانست روند صعودی 200 روزه بلندمدت را نقض کند. هر آزمایشی توسط فروشندگان که نتواند به زیر روند صعودی بلندمدت 200 روزه برسد، سیگنال تاییدی است که روند صعودی مثبت ادامه خواهد داشت. این یک سیگنال برای خرید در ضعف برای سرمایه گذاران بلند مدت است. این اولین و مهمترین سیگنال تحلیل تکنیکال برای investo
است
ادامه ...
بستن ...
Author(s): Tom K. Lloyd Sr.
Series: Wiley Trading
Publisher: John Wiley & Sons, Year: 2013
ISBN: 1118544528,9781118544525
ادامه ...
بستن ...
viii CONTENTS
CHAPTER 2 On-Balance Volume, Accumulation/Distribution,
Chaikin Money Flow, Pivot Point, Resistance
and Support, and Point & Figure Chart, with
Apple and Google Exhibits 15
Price and Volume 16
Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) 18
Moving Average Convergence/Divergence (MACD) 18
Value-Added Signals 19
Using Moving Averages 19
Pivot Point, Support and Resistance Points 20
Reverse Head-and-Shoulders Bottom 20
Apple Earnings Report 21
Case Study Questions on Apple 22
Planning for Apple’s Earnings Report 22
You Must Now Make a Decision on Apple before Earnings 25
Answers to the Case Study Questions 25
Summary of the Apple Case Study 30
Google Case Study 30
Summary of the Google Case Study 38
CHAPTER 3 Bottoms and Tops, Buying and Selling Cycles,
and Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO), with
IBM and Hewlett-Packard Exhibits 39
Inverted Head-and-Shoulders Bottom 39
Double Top and “V” Bottom 41
Resistance 41
Cycles 42
Writing Puts and Calls 42
The “Cloud Stocks” for the Future 43
Long-Term Investing 43
Buy-and-Hold Strategy Is Problematic 44
Hewlett-Packard Case Study 46
Case Study Answer 47
Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO) 49
My Answer to the Case Study 51
Summary 51
Contents ix
CHAPTER 4 Sell Signals 53
Double Top, Failed Momentum, 10- and 20-Day
Trends, Broken Support, Aroon Oscillator, and
Directional Movement with ADX, with
Herbalife Exhibits
Technical Signals before a Blowup 53
Technical Signals after a Blowup 54
Double-Top Warning 56
The 10- and 20-Day Moving Average Signals 58
Aroon Oscillator and Directional Movement 59
Comments after the Herbalife Blowup 60
Herbalife Case Study Challenge 62
Answers to the Case Study Questions 64
The Daily Chart Looks More Bearish 65
Summary 67
CHAPTER 5 Supply and Demand, Candlestick Signals,
and Point & Figure Chart, with
Facebook Exhibits 69
Candlestick Sell Signal for Facebook 69
Failed Facebook versus Lucky LinkedIn 70
Portfolio Managers Prefer
Fundamental Analysis 71
The Facebook IPO Game 72
Facebook Selloff 73
Facebook Dives Because of Supply 74
Traders Look for Inefficient Markets 75
Facebook Secrets Took Price Down 76
Facebook: The Rush to Sell on the First Day 77
Facebook Price in Search of a Bottom 78
Why Is Price Going Down? 79
Seeing Demand/Supply on the Chart 80
Waiting for Buy Signals 81
Picture of a “Busted IPO” 82
Point & Figure Chart Shows Continued Selling 83
x CONTENTS
On-Balance Volume 86
Accumulation/Distribution 86
Summary Picture of Supply and Demand 88
Facebook’s First Earnings Report 88
CMF Signal 89
MFI and MACD Signals 90
Gravestone Doji Candlestick Signal 90
Pivot Point Support/Resistance Levels 91
Day–Trading Signals 91
Tremendous Supply Overhang 93
Summary 93
CHAPTER 6 Breakout Signals 95
Ascending Triangle, Bullish Rectangle,
Double Bottom, and Falling Wedge,
with Microsoft, Lululemon, and Home
Depot Exhibits
Double Bottom and Bullish Rectangle Breakout 95
What Is Wrong with Microsoft? 96
What Caused Microsoft to Break Out? 98
Falling Wedge Signals Double Bottom 100
Candlestick Hammer a Bullish Reversal Signal 100
Case Study: Home Depot Ascending Triangle 101
Summary 104
CHAPTER 7 Relative Strength Index, Stochastic,
and MACD, with Lululemon Exhibits 105
Case Study: Lululemon before
Earnings Are Reported 108
What Are You Ready to Do? 110
Answer to the Case Study 111
Now Are You Ready to Sell Call Options? 112
False Sell Signals in the 200-Day and
Relative Strength 117
Summary 120
Contents xi
CHAPTER 8 Blow-Off Top, Trend Line Reversal,
Channel Breakout, and Fan Lines,
with Green Mountain Coffee Exhibits 121
Why Study Stocks that Blow Up? 121
How to Make Money When a Stock Crashes 122
Blow-Off Top and Trend Reversal 122
Sell Signals before the Fall 123
Selling Short after Einhorn’s Presentation 126
The Fatal Sell Signals 127
Bottom Fishing Green Mountain a Year Later 128
Looking for Buy Signals 130
Trading the Dead Cat Bounce 132
Summary 134
CHAPTER 9 Classic Top, Death Cross, Double
Bottom, Bull Trap, and Dead Cat
Bounce, with Netflix Exhibits 135
Classic Top: End of a Long-Term Uptrend 135
You Must Have a Sell Discipline 136
Death Cross, Dead Cat Bounce to a Bull Trap,
Double Bottom 138
Buy Signals to Double Your Money on the
Dead Cat Bounce 139
Dead Cat Bounce Up Fails 141
Broken “W” Bottom—Negative Surprise 144
Second Dead Cat Bounce and Second Failure 147
Summary 148
CHAPTER 10 Gaps, Divergences, Breakdowns and
Breakouts, Oscillators, with Research In
Motion Exhibits 149
Apple versus Research In Motion,
Stock Pairs Hedging 149
The Fall of Research In Motion from $148 to $35 151
Negative Divergence 152
xii CONTENTS
Double Bottom, Dead Cat Bounce, Double Top, Capitulation 154
Oversold/Overbought Oscillator 155
Trading the Dead Cat Bounce 155
Research In Motion Breakout Buy Signals 156
Research In Motion’s Double-Top Dive from $88 to $6 160
Research In Motion: All Signals Bearish for Three Years 161
Summary 163
CHAPTER 11 Relative Strength, Elliott Wave, and
Fibonacci Levels, with Priceline Exhibits 165
Guidelines for Success 165
Priceline Five-Year Performance versus Apple 166
Case Study Challenge for Priceline 167
Fundamental Models 168
Priceline Short-Term Daily Chart Signals 169
Priceline Long-Term Weekly Chart 171
Answer to the Priceline Case Study 175
My Postmortem Article on MarketWatch.com 176
Proactive before Earnings 178
Elliott Wave Targets a $440 Downside Test 179
Summary 180
CHAPTER 12 Evolution of Technical Signals from
A to Z, with LinkedIn Exhibits 183
LinkedIn IPO Successful 184
LinkedIn Selloff after Doubling the First Day 184
Practice with the LinkedIn Signals 186
Do You Buy LinkedIn on Weakness? 186
LinkedIn Case Study Challenge 189
Wall Street Price Targets for LinkedIn 190
What the Quants Are Saying 191
What the Charts Are Saying About Demand and Supply 193
Your Decision Required before LinkedIn
Earnings Are Announced 196
Answers to the LinkedIn Case Study 197
Summary 202
Contents xiii
CHAPTER 13 Using the 200-Day Moving Average
and Relative Strength to Rotate
In and Out of Winners, with
Starbucks Exhibits 203
Portfolio Managers Create Price Trends 205
What Do Portfolio Managers Look At? 206
What Do Traders Look At? 207
Monthly Chart for Portfolio Managers 207
Leading Sell Signals 209
What Will the Weekly Chart Do for
the Portfolio Manager? 211
Positive Up Arrows in Exhibit 13.3 213
How Do You Trade Starbucks Short Term? 214
Day Trading Starbucks after Good Earnings 217
Summary 222
CHAPTER 14 Technical Signals for Your Buy and
Sell Discipline, from Stochastics to the
200-Day Moving Average, with Chipotle
Mexican Grill Exhibits 223
Price Jumps on the Analyst Upgrade 225
Day Trading the News 226
Trading Systems 227
Trading Information 228
Day-Trading Buy Signals 228
Sell Signals on the Short-Term
Daily Chart 230
Buying at the Bottom 230
Change in Character from Bull to Bear 232
Selling at the Top 232
Hammer Candlestick Reversal Signal 235
Counting Down with Fibonacci and Elliott 236
Optimize Entry Level after Fundamental
Buy Signal 236
Waiting for the Bottom 238
Summary 239
xiv CONTENTS
CHAPTER 15 Using Money Flow, Trend Lines, RSI,
Stochastic, MACD, and Buy/Sell Signals to
Rotate In and Out of Losers, with J.P.
Morgan and Goldman Sachs Exhibits 241
J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs versus
the Regulators 242
J.P. Morgan Buy/Sell Signals 243
Signals for Stocks in a Trading Range 245
Buying the Bottom for a Trade 247
Trader’s Buy Signals 247
Portfolio Manager’s Buy/Sell Signals 248
Goldman Sachs, Best of Breed 252
Goldman’s Latest Sell Signal 252
Is the Goldman Sachs Bottom at $86 or $43? 255
Summary 257
CHAPTER 16 Day Trading Using Candlesticks,
Real-Time Volume and Price, RSI, MFI,
MACD, and 20- to 50-Minute Moving
Averages, with Salesforce Exhibits 259
What Is the World of Trading? 259
Trading Technology 261
How Has Technical Analysis Changed? 262
Trading Profitably 263
Case Study in Trading Salesforce.com 264
Answers to Monday’s Day-Trading Example 267
Time for the Second Trade on Monday—
What Will You Do? 270
Answer to the Second Trade on Monday 271
Third Trade for Monday 272
Answer to Monday’s Third Trade 272
Tuesday’s Day-Trading Case Question for
You to Answer 275
Answer to Tuesday’s Case Study Challenge 275
There Is Much More to Day Trading 279
Summary 279
Contents xv
CHAPTER 17 Investors Need Reliable Signals 281
50- and 200-Day Moving Averages, Money Flow,
Relative Strength, and Directional Movement,
with Apple, Home Depot and Wal-Mart Exhibits
Finding Great Stocks Such as Apple 282
Dow 30 Stocks 284
Home Depot—Anatomy of a Buy 286
Technical Analysis with Fundamentals 290
Wal-Mart—Anatomy of a Buy on Weakness 291
Summary 294
CHAPTER 18 Traders Need Stocks to Trade 295
Using Candlesticks, Volume, 10-Minute Chart,
Stochastic, MACD, and RSI, with Gamestop,
Green Mountain Coffee, and JCPenney Exhibits
Traders Are Early Birds 296
Traders Are Opportunistic 297
Traders Have a List of Longs and Shorts 298
Gamestop on the Long List but It’s a Trading Short 298
Trading the Positive Surprise
in Green Mountain Coffee 303
Why No Short Squeeze in Green Mountain Coffee? 306
Preparing a Trader’s Short List 306
Summary 308
CHAPTER 19 Winning in the Stock Market Using
Technical Analysis, S&P 500 Index,
SPY, and Reading the Market, with
SPY Exhibits 309
What Is the Current Status of the Market? 310
Elliott Waves 312
Using the Stock Trader’s Almanac 312
Identifying Tops in the Market 313
Is This a Market Top? 314
Percentage Price Oscillator’s Buy/Sell Signals 314
Moving Average Convergence Divergence’s
Buy/Sell Signals 316
Know Sure Thing Buy/Sell Signals 317
Keltner Channels Buy/Sell Signals 317
Closer View of the Monthly Chart 318
Switching to the Weekly Chart (Exhibit 19.3) 321
The Daily Chart Everyone Uses First 323
The Day Trader Is Trying to Dodge the Fiscal Cliff News 325
Day-Trading 5-Minute Chart (Exhibit 19.5) 326
Trader’s Buy Signals (Blue Line in Exhibit 19.5) 328
Trader’s Sell Signals (Red Line on Exhibit 19.5) 330
Summary 331
About the Companion Website 333
About the Author 335
Index 337
ادامه ...
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