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Preface Part 1 – Financial Modeling Overview 1 An Introduction to Financial Modeling and Excel The main ingredients of a financial model 4 Investment 4 Financing 5 Dividends 6 Understanding mathematical models 6 Definitions of financial models 7 Types of financial models 7 The 3-Statement model 8 The discounted cash flow model 10 The comparative companies model 11 The merger and acquisition model 12 The leveraged buyout model 12 Loan repayment schedule 12 The budget model 14 Other types of models 14 Limitations of Excel as a tool for financial modeling 15 Excel – the ideal tool 16 Summary 18 2 Steps for Building a Financial Model Discussions with management 20 Gauging management expectations 20 Knowing your client's business 20 Department heads 21 Building assumptions 21 Building a template for your model 21 Multiple-worksheet approach 22 Single-worksheet approach 23 Uploading historical financial data 27 Table of Contents vi Table of Contents Projecting the balance sheet and profit and loss account 30 Additional schedules and projections 31 Cash flow statement 33 Preparing ratio analysis 34 Valuation 36 Summary 37 Part 2 – The Use of Excel Features and Functions for Financial Modeling 3 Formulas and Functions – Completing Modeling Tasks with a Single Formula Understanding functions and formulas 42 Working with lookup functions 43 The VLOOKUP function 45 The INDEX and MATCH functions 48 The CHOOSE function 52 Utility type functions 55 The IF function 55 The MAX and MIN functions 56 Pivot tables and charts 58 Pitfalls to avoid 68 Protect sheets 68 New functions in Excel 365 69 XLOOKUP 69 FILTER 72 SORT 78 SORT BY 80 UNIQUE 82 Summary 89 4 Referencing Framework in Excel An introduction to the framework 92 Relative referencing 93 Absolute referencing 96 Mixed referencing 97 Summary 101 Table of Contents vii 5 An Introduction to Power Query Highlighting common formatting mistakes 104 What is Power Query? 106 Different ways to use Power Query 109 Advantages of Power Query 114 Illustrative example 115 Summary 139 Part 3 – Building an Integrated 3-Statement Financial Model with Valuation by DCF 6 Understanding Project and Building Assumptions Understanding the nature and purpose of a project and discussions with management 144 Conducting interviews 144 Building assumptions 145 Historical data 145 General assumptions 146 Profit and loss and balance sheet assumptions 146 Selecting profit and loss account growth drivers 146 Year-on-year growth 147 Compound annual growth rate 147 Selecting balance sheet growth drivers 151 Days of inventory 152 Debtor days 153 Creditor days 153 Summary 161 7 Asset and Debt Schedules Understanding the BASE and corkscrew concepts 164 Asset schedule 165 The straight line method 166 The reducing balance method 166 Approaches to modeling assets 170 The detailed approach 170 Asset and depreciation schedule 172 The simple approach 176 viii Table of Contents Debt schedule 179 The complex approach 180 The simple approach 183 Creating a simple loan amortization schedule 184 Summary 191 8 Preparing a Cash Flow Statement Introduction to the cash flow statement 194 Cash flow from operations 196 Working capital movements 197 Cash flow from investing activities 199 Cash flow from financing activities 200 Balancing the balance sheet 202 Troubleshooting 202 Circular references 203 Summary 205 9 Ratio Analysis Understanding the meaning and benefits of ratio analysis 208 Learning the various classes of ratios 209 Profitability 209 Liquidity ratios 210 Efficiency ratios 211 Debt management ratios 214 Market value ratios 215 Interpreting ratios 215 Understanding the limitations of ratio analysis 216 Summary 216 10 Valuation Understanding absolute valuation 218 Understanding relative valuation – comparative company analysis 223 Trading comparatives 224 Precedent transaction comparative 226 Interpreting the results 228 Summary 233 Table of Contents ix 11 Model Testing for Reasonableness and Accuracy Incorporating built-in tests and procedures 236 Troubleshooting 239 Show Formulas 240 Evaluate Formula 242 Understanding sensitivity analysis 246 Using direct and indirect methods 246 The direct method 248 The indirect method 250 Understanding scenario analysis 264 Creating a simple Monte Carlo simulation model 264 Summary 273 Part 4 – Case Study 12 Case Study 1 – Building a Model to Extract a Balance Sheet and Profit and Loss from a Trial Balance Scenario for the case study 278 Preparing a WTB 279 Extracting groupings from the WTB 284 Preparing a model template for BS and PNL, and relevant extracts from notes and schedules 288 Populating BS, PNL, notes, and schedules from groupings 290 Preparing journal adjustments and linking to the WTB 296 Updating financial statements and troubleshooting to correct errors 300 Summary 304 x Table of Contents 13 Case Study 2 – Creating a Model for Capital Budgeting Introduction 306 Understanding NPV 306 Understanding IRR 308 Understanding PI 308 Understanding PBP 309 Case study 309 Solution 310 Summary 319 Index Other Books You May Enjoy

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