لایب سان

Jean-François Serval
Groupe Audit - Serval & Associes
Neuilly sur Seine, France
Jean-Pascal Tranié
Aloe Private Equity
Paris, France
ISSN 2662-2467 ISSN 2662-2475 (electronic)
Future of Business and Finance
ISBN 978-3-031-24188-8 ISBN 978-3-031-24189-5 (eBook)
https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-031-24189-5
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Contents 1 Short History of Money from Antiquity to the Twenty-First Century . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.1 The Origins . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 1.2 Caesar and Augustus: Legal and Financial Reforms . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3 1.3 The Last Turn to Modern Money: The U.S. Default on Gold in 1971 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 2 The Evolution Toward Modern Money and the Path Toward Digital . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.1 Money and Accounting Are Closely Linked . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.1.1 Financial Statements: Defining the Real World and the Financial Universe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 2.1.2 The Real World and the Financial World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18 2.1.3 The Basis for the Expression of Today’s Money . . . . . . . . 20 2.1.4 Stock Markets Influence Financial Statements; Monetary Transmission . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.1.5 One Global Language, Accounting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 22 2.2 The Uniqueness of the Transcription of Exchanges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2.1 The Principle of the Double Part . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 23 2.2.2 The Principle of the Annual Exercise: Integrate the Time Factor . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.3 Accounting for Liabilities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25 2.3.1 Accounting for Financial Instruments at “Fair Value” (Addressed by IFRS 9) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 26 2.3.2 A New Vision of Accounting in a New World . . . . . . . . . . 27 2.3.3 The Shortcomings of Accounting . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 28 2.3.4 Lessons Learned from the Uncertainties of Reading the Books . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31 3 The Current Model, the Role of Central Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3.1 The Interaction Between the Real World and the Financial World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 33 3.2 The Traditional Role of Central Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 34 3.3 The Issue of Profits and Taxation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 36 xxiii xxiv Contents 3.4 The New Positioning of Central Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 3.5 Central Bank Accounting and Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 39 3.6 Functions and Tools of Central Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3.7 The New Crisis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 41 3.8 The Transmission of Monetary Policies to the Non-Financial World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 3.9 Rates and Volumes Are the Key Tools of Central Banks’ Monetary Policies . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42 3.10 Risk Borne by Central Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.11 The Relationship Between the Real World and the Financial Universe from the Point of View of Transaction Monitoring by the Central Bank . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 43 3.12 Disconnections Between the Real World and the Financial World and Leaks in the Information System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 3.13 Reducing the Scope of Central Bank Action . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46 3.14 The Monetary Aspects of Distribution . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48 4 The Monetary World and Its Analytical Tools . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 51 4.1 Exchanges Are the Source of Monetary Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . 52 4.2 Update on the Coherence of Currency Spaces and Its Consequences . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 4.3 The Transformation of the Monetary World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 4.4 The Monetary Unit . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 54 4.5 Distinctions of the Medium, the Standard and the Blockchain . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 56 4.6 The Stamping and the Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 57 4.7 The Right to Issue a Standard . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 58 4.8 The New Approach of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 60 4.9 Conceptual Discussion for an Expanded Monetary Approach . . . . 60 4.10 The Necessary Development of the Observation of the Single Financial Space . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 64 4.11 M5 and M6: Derivatives and Separation Between Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 4.12 The Landscape of Exchanges Through M5, M6 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67 4.13 Analytical Objectives of Exchange Rate Observation . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4.14 The Classification of Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 69 4.15 Exchangeability Between Instruments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 70 4.16 The New Paradigm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 4.17 The Power of Seigniorage and Its Challenges Today . . . . . . . . . . . . 71 4.18 A Formula Test: STD (Serval, Tranié, Douady) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 74 5 The Monetary System, the Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 5.1 What Does the Word “System” Mean When It Comes to Money? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 5.2 Description of the Existing System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 78 Contents xxv 5.3 System Foundations—Independence and Sovereignty . . . . . . . . . . . 79 5.4 Central Banks at the Base of the System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 5.5 The American Federal Reserve Bank’s Objectives . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 80 5.6 The Central Bank of the European Union “ECB” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 81 5.7 The People’s Bank of China (PBoC or PBC) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 5.8 What Does Central Bank Independence Mean? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 82 5.9 International Monetary Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 5.9.1 The International Monetary Fund (IMF) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 5.9.2 The World Trade Organization (WTO) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 87 5.9.3 The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) . . . . . . . . . . . 88 5.9.4 The Main Institutions Involved in Transnational Lending . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 89 5.9.5 The World Bank Group (WBG) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 5.9.6 Regional Development Banks . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90 5.9.7 Issues to Be Discussed for the Implementation of a Renewed Monetary System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 5.9.8 Financial Market Infrastructures (MFIs) . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 5.9.9 The G20 Distinguishes Three Categories of Infrastructure . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 93 5.9.10 Attempts to Propose Alternative Solutions to Risk Concentration . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 96 5.9.11 An Extended Stabilization System from the CCPs (Central Clearing Counterparty) Could Be Considered . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 5.9.12 Topics Not Yet Adequately Addressed by Monetary or State Institutions . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 97 5.9.13 International Coordination, from G7 to G20 . . . . . . . . . . . . 101 5.9.14 The Current Situation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 102 5.9.15 The Financial Stability Board (FSB): The Necessary “Strange Animal” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 108 5.9.16 Toward a New World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 112 5.9.17 Intermediate Synthesis . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 114 6 The Monetary Reform, Its Stakes and Its Modalities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 6.1 The Standard as the Central Issue of a Renewed International Monetary System . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 117 6.1.1 Why Would a Clear Separation Between the Unit and the Support Be a Positive Step Forward? . . . . . . . . . . . 119 6.1.2 How to Protect the Inviolability of the Standard? . . . . . . . 120 6.1.3 What Exchange Rate Parity with Other Currencies Should Be Adopted? . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 120 6.2 The Objectives of Monetary Reform Within the Framework of an International Treaty . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 121 6.3 What International Conference? Leadership Requirements, Participants and Transition Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 xxvi Contents 6.4 The Rise of the FSB . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 122 6.5 The G20 as a Political Leader for International Coordination . . . . 123 6.6 Technical Skills: BIS and IMF . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 6.7 The Role of Central Banks Needs to Be Redefined . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 124 6.8 The Place of Companies in the New Monetary Framework . . . . . . 125 6.9 OECD Governance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 126 7 The Reduction of Public Debt, the Heart of a Monetary Reform . . . . . 129 7.1 Possible Ways to Reduce Debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 129 7.1.1 The First Path: Provoke the Reduction of the Value of the Instruments by the Rise of the Rates . . . . . . . . . . . . . 130 7.1.2 A Second Path to Debt Reduction: Organized Debt Clearance . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 131 7.1.3 The Third Way: Converting Debt into Equity . . . . . . . . . . . 132 7.2 Implementation of a Public Debt Reorganization Scheme . . . . . . . 133 7.2.1 Debt Reduction Process in the Western World . . . . . . . . . . 133 7.2.2 Feasibility of the Exchange Project for Western Countries . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 7.2.3 Reminder of Some Basic Data . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 135 7.2.4 Principle of the Transformation of Public Debt into Investment Securities . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 137 7.2.5 A Major Entrepreneurial Project at the Heart of a New Economic Paradigm . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 138 7.2.6 A Dynamic Process to Build . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 139 7.2.7 The Transformation Process . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 140 7.3 A—The General Dimension of the Project . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 141 7.4 B—The Debt Transformation Process for the Eurozone . . . . . . . . . 142 7.4.1 Creation of a Hive-Off Fund Called Transformation Fund or “TF” . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 143 7.4.2 The Exchange of Acquired and Subscribed Shares for Debt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 145 7.4.3 Neutralization of Public Debt by Allocation of Securities Representing Investments . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 146 7.4.4 Joint Commentary on the Taxation, Trading Process and Legal Status of Trading Rights in Projects . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 147 7.4.5 The Specificity of the Exchange Scheme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 148 7.4.6 An Unavoidable Transformation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 7.5 C—The Process for the US Dollar Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 149 7.5.1 A Realistic Global Objective . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 151 7.5.2 The 60% Cap . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 7.6 D—Countries that Do Not Have Monetary Autonomy (So-Called Peripheral Countries) and Asian Countries that Together Form a Fast-Developing Zone . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 152 Contents xxvii 7.7 E—Project Availability, Side Effects and Common Currency Issues . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 154 7.8 F—Common Success Factors, Coordination and International Aspects: Moving Toward a Multilateral Monetary World . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 155 7.8.1 The Conditions and Challenges of a Successful Transformation Plan . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 156 7.8.2 The Deployment of the Device and its Requirements: No Speculation . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 7.9 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 157 Conclusion . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 163 Appendices . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 167 Bibliography . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 18

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